Eurovision Song Contest Voting

Our Eurovisionomics analysis for 2002-2007 indicates that the following countries have benefited from higher than average scores from the same country or countries in at least four of the last six contests:

N.B. We have included data for Armenia and Serbia & Montenegro even though they competed in just two of the six contests.

In the case of Russia, seven countries (Belarus, Cyprus, Estonia, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine) have awarded Russia a mark that is unusually high – totalling 33 higher than expected marks and showing clear evidence of neighbourly or ‘bloc’ voting.

Bosnia & Herzegovina received significant benefit from Austria, Croatia, Slovenia, Sweden and Turkey. Even the UK, has benefited from friendly voting alliances with Ireland and Malta.

Depending on whether the Baltic or Balkans dominate Saturday’s finalists, Russia or Bosnia (or even Armenia or Turkey) look set to win.

However, just as some countries are “over valued” through receiving generous scores from friendly nations, some countries receive particularly low scores. Since 2002, the following countries have suffered in this way:

The data for Armenia is based on two years voting and may not yet be representative. However there is little doubt that Turkey and Bosnia Herzegovina have been unpopular with a number of nations.

Combining the two tables we see the countries which definitely top the league as net beneficiaries of friendly voting:

Russia is way out in the lead but has never won the contest. Is friendly or ‘bloc voting’ enough to win? Maybe not…

Only Greece from these top-5 “over valued” countries has won the contest since 2001. In fact the neutral (zero rated) countries not listed in these tables may have the telling say in who wins Eurovision. Collectively they will set the average mark around which the over- and under-valued nations will benefit or lose out.

With this in mind we will combine this analysis with the votes from our fan poll to predict a possible top-5. We will start this on Tuesday and keep it updated right up to the final on Saturday.