Eurovision Song Contest Voting

Model Predictions 2010

admin — Sat, 29 May 2010 12:27:49 +0000

the songcontestvoting.com model predicts the following top-10 for the 2010 Eurovision Song Contest final from Oslo:

1. Azerbaijan 1.14
2. Armenia 1.56
3. Israel 3.46
4. Germany 3.66
5. Turkey 4.51
6. Greece 5.42
7. Denmark 6.87
8. Ireland 7.97
9. Belgium 14.58
10. Romania 15.48

and for last place:

25. United Kingdom 133.65

Model Prediction 2009

admin — Sat, 16 May 2009 16:24:17 +0000

Our voting patterns model has come up with the following prediction for the rank order in tonight’s contest in Moscow. The number is the odds on that country winning the contest (as generated by the model).

Our fan poll is still underway and we will post final results from that later on.

Norway 0.7
Greece 1.7
Turkey 4.5
Ukraine 5.8
Azerbaijan 6.4
Bosnia Herzegovina 7.0
United Kingdom 9.6
Iceland 16.2
Finland 17.3
Armenia 19.6
Estonia 29.4
France 31.8
Germany 36.7
Malta 37.3
Russia 37.9
Sweden 38.1
Albania 38.8
Portugal 47.7
Spain 48.9
Romania 49.8
Denmark 50.0
Moldova 60.0
Israel 86.7
Lithuania 95.7
Croatia 187.1

May 13 top-20

admin — Wed, 13 May 2009 17:55:03 +0000

At presenr our model combining fan opinion and past performance data indicates the following top-20, with odds given, so Norway remains our clear favourite:

Norway 0.976555101
Greece 1.695090043
Bosnia Herzegovina 3.943561647
Turkey 4.10792212
Azerbaijan 7.306782525
Ukraine 9.055102756
United Kingdom 12.83053932
Armenia 15.66070082
Finland 17.30977925
Iceland 17.84145902
Sweden 17.97953529
Russia 20.83437515
Serbia 22.16086661
Germany 22.91402735
Estonia 23.51398277
Malta 24.60152487
France 28.42212611
Portugal 47.72314304
Spain 48.93621938
Romania 49.76334989

Predictions Update

admin — Fri, 01 May 2009 09:19:42 +0000

Norway 1.1
Greece 2.4
Turkey 3.1
Ukraine 9.1
Azerbaijan 9.1
Montenegro 10.5
Bosnia Herzegovina 11.0
Sweden 13.6
Estonia 16.4
Finland 17.3
Malta 18.6
Russia 18.9
United Kingdom 21.4
Serbia 22.2
Armenia 25.8
Iceland 26.8
Germany 36.7
France 37.5
Lithuania 43.7

Early predictions

admin — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 17:05:03 +0000

Based on our eurovisionomics model of voting patterns since 2004 and current odds at the bookmaker, Stan James, our current prediction for the top-15 is:

Norway 1.19
Greece 2.71
Turkey 4.52
Montenegro 6.37
Azerbaijan 7.31
Ukraine 9.06
Russia 9.47
Bosnia Herzegovina 10.95
Serbia 11.08
Sweden 11.99
Finland 14.28
Malta 18.64
Israel 23.12
Estonia 25.00
Armenia 25.84

The figure is our adjusted “odds” on the country winning.
We will update this table regularly. However unless we change the model the main fluctuations will arise from changes in betting odds. Norway appears to be a clear favourite to win at present.

Eurovision word cloud

admin — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:37:07 +0000

Our computer-generated Eurovision cloud displays the most frequently used words in the most recent entries on over 100 Eurovision blogs and websites. As the contest nears it may indicate who are the most and least talked about entries. The cloud will be updated frequently and different features added as part of our analysis of Eurovision Song Contest voting patterns.

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Norway – early favourites

admin — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 14:53:35 +0000

Norway has emerged as the early favourite with the bookmakers to win the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest being held in Moscow in May. We will be publishing our updated “bloc voting index” very soon to see how friendly voting patterns may influence this year’s results.

Wogan replaced

admin — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:45:38 +0000

The BBC has confirned that its controversial Eurovision Song Contest commentator, Terry Wogan, will be replaced from 2009 by Graham Norton. This is good news for everyone tired of Wogan’s predictable but inaccurate complaints about the impact of “bloc voting” on Eurovision voting and the UK’s performance in particular.

2008 results without bloc voting

admin — Mon, 26 May 2008 14:15:25 +0000

We have removed all the “friendly” votes (defined below) to discover what the 2008 Song Contest results would look like without so called “bloc” voting. Here they are:

Country Points
Russia 188
Ukraine 148
Greece 136
Norway 122
Israel 92
Serbia 92
Armenia 73
Azerbaijan 54
Turkey 45
Bosnia Herzegovina 32
Latvia 23
Georgia 22
Croatia 21
France 20
Spain 20
Denmark 19
Romania 15
Sweden 15
Portugal 11
Albania 10
Iceland 10
Finland 3
Germany 2
Poland 0
United Kingdom 0

2008 friendly voting league

admin — Mon, 26 May 2008 12:13:16 +0000

We have calculated how many times each country received a “friendly” vote – i.e. a score above the nation’s average (taking into account standard deviation).

Once again there are post-contest complaints in the media about so called ‘bloc’ or political voting influencing the outcome. However Russia comes 11th in the bloc voting league for 2008 so it appears they were deserving victors.

Country / ‘Friendly’ Votes Received in 2008
Armenia 11
Turkey 10
Georgia 9
Ukraine 8
Azerbaijan 8
Bosnia Herzegovina 8
Portugal 8
Latvia 7
Greece 7
Iceland 7
Russia 7
Norway 6
Serbia 6
Albania 5
Finland 5
Denmark 5
France 4
Spain 4
Sweden 4
Israel 4
Romania 3
Croatia 3
United Kingdom 2
Poland 2
Germany 1